This opinion piece explains why Experts for Expats has avoided all Budget speculation ahead of the upcoming UK announcement. The article sets out the problems with the rumour cycle, the risks of acting on unverified claims and the importance of waiting for confirmed legislation before making financial or relocation decisions.
Next Wednesday marks the date of the latest budget in the UK. Public discussions around the UK Budget always spark a wave of predictions. Newspapers run daily countdowns, social media threads circulate dramatic claims and financial influencers publish confident but contradictory forecasts.
For people whose lives span multiple countries, along with anybody who stands to lose out from tax changes, this noise can feel overwhelming and it is often unclear what is meaningful and what is simply guesswork.
At Experts for Expats, we deliberately avoid joining this cycle of speculation.
Our role is to provide clarity, accuracy and genuine support for people moving to or living abroad, not to add to the confusion. This article explains why you will not see us publishing predictions about tax rates, allowances or policy changes before they are officially confirmed.
We held this approach around Brexit, Covid and all previous budgets, and we will do so in the future. We see no benefit in speculating to create fear. Experts for Expats does not benefit from getting clicks, nor do we get make money by making more introductions.
Our business is built on trust and our purpose is to minimise stress and anxiety in a world which feels intent on maximising these inhibiting emotions. This article has been written to try to explain our long held ethos around helping people through calm, fact based advice.
Disclaimer: This article provides general guidance only. It does not constitute personal tax, financial or immigration advice. Always seek help from a qualified specialist before making decisions.
Most Budget predictions are written to capture attention rather than provide context.
For people managing cross border finances, these rumours can influence behaviour at precisely the wrong moment. Acting on unverified information creates unnecessary stress and increases the risk of poor decisions, especially when rules differ from country to country and interact with local law.
We focus on what people can actually use. Until details are confirmed by HM Treasury and HMRC, nothing is actionable and it would be negligent to view rumours and opinions as fact.
We recognise that sometimes there is a grain of truth within the rumour cycle. Over the past fifteen months alone there have been claims about income tax rates rising, exit taxes being introduced, capital gains tax being overhauled and VAT being restructured.
Many of these predictions were later abandoned or reversed within weeks. The reality is that if you throw enough ideas into the public domain, some of them will sound plausible or land close to something that eventually happens.
It is the equivalent of the old sayings of “if you throw enough mud, some of it will stick” or “even a stopped clock is right twice a day”.
Occasionally being close to the truth does not make the surrounding speculation useful or reliable and it certainly does not provide a basis for making important life decisions.
Budget speculation is designed to generate engagement, it is not created to inform, it is ultimately created to generate clicks and shares.
Online publishers, social platforms and financial influencers all operate in an environment where attention is the primary currency. The more dramatic the headline, the more engagement it produces and the more advertising revenue it generates.
This creates a clear incentive to publish rumours that provoke strong emotional reactions. Predictions about tax rises, allowance cuts or new charges attract instant interest because they tap into fear, urgency and uncertainty.
Yet very few of these claims originate from identifiable or official sources. Many cannot be traced beyond secondary reporting or unattributed “briefings” that may never have existed in the first place.
For expats, this is especially unhelpful. Rumours that cannot be verified end up circulating as if they were factual and the noise often spreads faster than formal Government announcements. By the time the real information is released, many people have already experienced unnecessary stress or changed plans based on speculation that had no foundation.
Experts for Expats avoids this environment entirely. We are not funded by advertising impressions or rewarded for publishing attention grabbing headlines. Our responsibility is to provide accurate, calm guidance, which can only happen once the facts are known.
Expats cannot rely on headlines because tax and financial outcomes depend on:
The unique challenges created by cross border living exist because every decision interacts with multiple systems.
UK tax rules alone never tell the full story. Residency tests, local tax laws, double tax treaties, reporting obligations, investment structures and currency factors all shape the real outcomes.
Without the final legislation, nobody can responsibly explain how a supposed “change” will play out across borders.
Short term decisions, especially around money, rarely lead to good results. Rumours create a sense of urgency, yet most rapid reactions end up being emotionally driven rather than strategic. It is usually better to ride the storm, wait for the facts and understand the long term implications once the noise has settled.
If you find yourself considering a major life change abroad because of predicted tax changes, it is worth pausing.
Relocating your life is a profound upheaval. The question is not “what if the rumours are true” but “why would I seek that upheaval and what do I genuinely stand to gain by making a quick decision”.
Moving abroad purely for financial reasons rarely creates lasting satisfaction. Life overseas can be rewarding, but it brings challenges, adjustments and periods of discomfort. It is unlikely to feel like a dream if the motivation comes from financial panic rather than genuine intention.
Rumours also influence markets, particularly currency.
Headlines can push sterling up or down within minutes, even when the information has no confirmed basis. These movements are often short lived. A single rumour can be cancelled out by another the following day, returning the market to where it was or creating even more volatility.
Making financial or relocation decisions based on a currency swing caused by speculation is rarely wise. Only confirmed policy, supported by real detail, provides a stable foundation for planning.
This is why we wait. Cross border decisions require clarity, not hints or noise. Until the rules are finalised, speculation cannot help you make informed or meaningful choices.
Experts for Expats has grown over the years by offering reliable, well researched information.
Joining the speculation cycle would erode that trust.
Our readers rely on us to filter what matters, not to add to the noise simply to appear topical. We will only comment when the facts are available and when our insight genuinely adds value. Until then, silence is not avoidance. It is responsibility.
We also recognise that this approach means we are unlikely to appear in headlines.
Journalists are not looking for calm, measured advice that tells people to wait, reflect and make decisions only when the facts are known. “Stay calm, wait to see and then come to us when the detail is released so we can help you make a sensible long term decision” is never going to make the front page. But it is the message that actually helps people.
Trust is also not built by bold predictions. You do not gain trust by guesswork, even if a prediction occasionally happens to be right. Our integrity has never been based on being “right”. It is based on dealing in facts. Nobody knows the future, and making decisions around tax, money or relocation based on unknowns is risky at best and reckless at worst.
It is also worth remembering that those who make predictions rarely highlight the far more frequent occasions when they are wrong. You never see a newspaper headline saying “we were wrong”. The rumour cycle simply moves on and the people who acted on that misinformation are left carrying the consequences alone.
That lack of accountability is exactly why we do our best to avoid speculation.
This approach is not new for us. During the Brexit referendum, we deliberately avoided forecasting outcomes. Instead, we encouraged people to think in terms of personal risk.
What do you stand to lose and what do you stand to gain? Can you afford to take the gamble?
That principle, focusing on individual wellbeing rather than predictions, remains central to everything we publish.
Use this list to assess whether a headline, prediction or social media post is reliable, or whether it is more likely part of the speculation cycle.
Our approach is straightforward:
This ensures that anything we publish can be relied upon and applied to real situations.
We will create content that is:
Our analysis will focus on how confirmed changes affect tax, currency, money management, pensions, property and cross border planning.
We will be creating a video and podcast after the event, but we won’t be the first to release it. We’ve asked a number of partners to review everything, decipher what’s going to come into law and then how is that going to affect people either living abroad or moving to the UK.
We can arrange an introduction to a qualified specialist who understands both UK rules and the requirements in your country of residence. A discovery call can help you understand how the Budget may affect your plans once the real detail is published.
We will be going through the detail and presenting the information once everything has been announced. Join us on our youtube and email channels if you want to read and hear unbiased views about what’s happening.